League Two Play-Off Final 12/1 Bet Builder – Gab Sutton

Having looked nailed on for automatic promotion in January, it’s come as a shock that Walsall will need the Play-Off route to secure their place in League One next season.

The obvious jibes will be ready should the Saddlers fall short, but there’s a degree of luck at play, losing Nathan Lowe in January, and none of the other strikers added quite making the cut.

Mat Sadler’s men responded well to April’s no-show at Barrow, and showings against Harrogate, Newport and Accrington Stanley merited more than the two points they yielded.

The response was one of admirable defiance, even if the final day 1-0 victory at Crewe wasn’t enough for automatic promotion due to Bradford’s injury-time winner.

Whether it was Mat Sadler’s change of formation, or whether it was the mental refresh that that change provided, something feels different about the Black Country outfit: fans are hoping that different feel hasn’t come too late.

Walsall have had their defensive issues in the second half of the season, but there’s reason to think they may be a thing of the past.

The Saddlers have given up fewer chances since defender Harry Williams returned to the heart of defence in April.

The switch to just one recognised centre-forward has given them more control over the midfield areas, and harder to play through, which proves useful to the attacking freedom handed to, Connor Barrett, Nathan Asiimwe or Taylor Allen.

With Omar Bugiel jaded, the Dons have operated without their target man in recent games, but in all three games it’s more been about defending their box extremely well, Owen Goodman producing a goalkeeping masterclass, and keeping the opposition at arm’s length. They could do all those things right and still fall victim to a Taylor Allen free kick.

Wimbledon have some good players, especially Ali Smith in midfield, and wing-back Josh Neufville yet, for goals, they’ve relied a bit too heavily on Matty Stevens, who has just one goal to his name since mid-February.

Since Mat Sadler switched to a system of just one natural centre-forward, four players have had four or more shots across the subsequent three straight wins.

Midfielder Jamie Jellis had four efforts at goal, George Hall had six, likewise striker Levi Amantchi, but the most attempts in that time have come from Taylor Allen with seven.

Allen is a centre-back by trade, but the 3-4-2-1 system allows the technician plenty of freedom from the left of a three-man defence to roam forwards. Allen operates behind Liam Gordon, who tends to cut inside to link up with midfielders and forwards.

That creates plenty of attacking avenues in open play for the former Forest Green man, who is also the Saddlers’ recognised set piece taker: Allen has scored seven direct set piece goals this season, as well as one from open play, and three penalties.

In fact, Allen has scored more than twice the number of league goals of any current player in the squad, baring target man Jamille Matt.