Georgia secured a 2-0 victory away to Lithuania, with both goals arriving in the second half at 01:09:01 and 01:23:15. Lithuania produced more corner opportunities, 7 to Georgia's 4, but were unable to convert that pressure into a goal. The discipline skewed towards Lithuania, who were reduced to 10 men by a red card and collected four yellows, while Georgia earned a single yellow and no red.

Georgia's defense remained well-organized in the first half, with the game opening up only after the break. Lithuania committed more fouls (15) than Georgia (20), indicating a more aggressive approach without immediate payoff in that period. The second half then produced the decisive moments for the visitors with two goals.

Set-piece output did not yield a Lithuanian goal despite the higher corner count, suggesting the Georgia defence and goalkeeper managed cross and delivery scenarios effectively. The disparity in corners (7 vs 4) shows Lithuania sought to leverage standard opportunities more than Georgia, yet it did not alter the outcome. This contrast highlights how set-piece volume did not correlate with scoring in this match.

Georgia showed increased attacking intent after the break, converting their enhanced pressure into two goals. The red card for Lithuania disrupted their structure and likely narrowed their counter options, enabling Georgia to press with greater compactness. The away side capitalized on open play more effectively once the game opened up.

From a bettors' perspective, the red card swing was the pivotal factor, shifting momentum and increasing Georgia's win probability after the restart. While Lithuania enjoyed more corners, their inability to convert and the sending-off overshadowed that advantage. Looking ahead, red-card risk and the balance of open play versus set-piece activity should influence forecasts when Georgia are involved.

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