- 09 June 2026, Estonia vs Lithuania, 1-0, Win
- 06 June 2026, Estonia vs Faroe Islands, 1-0, Win
- 11 June 2024, Lithuania vs Estonia, 4-5, Win
- 08 June 2024, Estonia vs Faroe Islands, 4-1, Win
- 19 November 2022, Estonia vs Lithuania, 2-0, Win
- 09 June 2026, Estonia vs Lithuania, 1-0, Lose
- 06 June 2026, Lithuania vs Latvia, 6-5, Win
- 11 June 2024, Lithuania vs Estonia, 4-5, Lose
- 08 June 2024, Latvia vs Lithuania, 0-2, Win
- 19 November 2022, Estonia vs Lithuania, 2-0, Lose
Estonia edged Lithuania 1-0, with the decisive strike arriving in the second half. The result reflects a tight contest where Estonia avoided red cards and Lithuania accumulated more disciplinary points. Estonian corners (4) narrowly led Lithuania's (3), while Estonia also recorded more offside calls (4 to 1).
The attacking narrative points to Estonia applying sustained pressure in the latter stages, aided by a higher propensity to get in behind from wide areas. The second-half goal aligns with that push and the 4 corner opportunities suggest that Estonia were probing the Lithuanian defense from multiple angles. The higher offside count indicates an ambitious forward line looking for through balls and runs behind the line.
Defensively, Estonia maintained a clean sheet, signaling solid organization and discipline at key moments. Lithuania’s 19 fouls imply a more aggressive approach to disrupt play, which can generate stoppages and fragment opposing rhythm. Despite that, the absence of a goal conceded shows Estonia managed to convert their defensive shape into a decisive moment when it mattered.
Set-piece dynamics favored Estonia slightly, given their extra corner tally, which provided a platform to test the Lithuanian back line. The offside imbalance (Estonia’s higher figure) suggests they attempted more vertical, attacking plays that tested the line but also risked losing yards in offside calls. Lithuania’s discipline issues occurred alongside attempts to press, which can disrupt rhythm but may invite set-piece opportunities for the opposition.
Teamwork and performance comparison points to Estonia’s cohesion as a differentiator, with fewer total yellows reflecting cleaner collective discipline amid late pressure. Lithuania’s higher card count and fouling rate hint at a more fractious approach that affected their ability to sustain a consistent tempo. In terms of tactical impact, Estonia’s compact defense combined with efficient transitions proved decisive in the narrow win.
For bettors, the match reinforces Estonia’s viability as a solid home underdog against similar profiles, particularly where robust defense and set-piece potential can tilt a 90-minute result. A 1-0 outcome reinforces the under-2.5 goals angle and highlights Estonia’s ability to convert limited chances, especially when they face a team willing to commit bodies forward. Watch for Lithuania’s higher foul and card incidence in future fixtures, as those patterns can create angles for opponents via free-kicks, cards, and breaks in play.
Form Guide
| Win | 1-0 | Estonia vs Lithuania | |
| Win | 1-0 | Estonia vs Faroe Islands | |
| Win | 4-5 | Lithuania vs Estonia | |
| Win | 4-1 | Estonia vs Faroe Islands | |
| Win | 2-0 | Estonia vs Lithuania |
- PLAYED
- 5
- WINS
- 5
- GOALS
- 13:5
- GOALS / MATCH
- 2.6
- Estonia has won five matches in a row with a goal difference of 13:5, scoring 2.6 goals average
| Lose | 1-0 | Estonia vs Lithuania | |
| Win | 6-5 | Lithuania vs Latvia | |
| Lose | 4-5 | Lithuania vs Estonia | |
| Win | 0-2 | Latvia vs Lithuania | |
| Lose | 2-0 | Estonia vs Lithuania |
- PLAYED
- 5
- WINS
- 2
- GOALS
- 12:13
- GOALS / MATCH
- 2.4
- Lithuania has two wins in its last five matches with a goal difference of 12:13, scoring 2.4 goals average
Estonia H2H Lithuania
| Home game | Estonia | 1 | 0 | Lithuania | Away game | Baltic Cup | |
| Away game | Estonia | 5 | 4 | Lithuania | Home game | Baltic Cup | |
| Home game | Estonia | 2 | 0 | Lithuania | Away game | Baltic Cup | |
| Away game | Estonia | 1 | 0 | Lithuania | Home game | Baltic Cup | |
| Home game | Estonia | 1 | 3 | Lithuania | Away game | International Friendlies |
- PLAYED
- 5
- WINS
- 4
- GOALS
- 10:7
- GOALS / MATCH
- 2.00
- In the last five matches that these two sides meet, Estonia overtook Lithuania four times
- Estonia won four times, lost once
- Teams played five times head-to-head in the current season with the goals score 10:7; average goals per match – 2.00
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